Local Market Update – October 2018

It appears that balance is slowly returning to the local housing market. Home price growth slowed in September. Inventory continued to climb, but is still far short of the four to six months that indicate a normal market. Homes are staying on the market longer, giving buyers the breathing room to make the right choice for their situation.  With our region’s healthy job growth, and demand still exceeding supply, it’s likely to take some time to move to a fully balanced market.

Eastside

>>>Click image to view full report.

Home price increases moderated into the single-digits in September. The median price of a single-family home on the Eastside was up 4 percent from the same time last year to $890,0000 but down from a median price of $935,000 in August. Inventory increased significantly and price drops jumped. While the market is softening, the recent expanded presence of Google and Facebook on the Eastside means demand should stay strong.  In addition, the area’s excellent school system continues to be a large draw for buyers both locally and internationally.

King County

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Inventory was up 68 percent year-over-year in King County due to a higher number of sellers listing their homes and fewer sales.  There is now more than two months of inventory in the county, a number we haven’t seen in nearly four years. Despite the increase, there is a long way to go to reach the four to six months of inventory that is considered balanced.  In September, the median price of a single-family home was $668,000; an increase of 7 percent from the same time last year and virtually unchanged from August.

Seattle

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Inventory in Seattle surged in September from a year ago. Only San Jose, CA saw the number of homes for sale rise faster than Seattle last month. The median home price in September was $775,000. Up slightly from the $760,000 median price in August and a 7 percent increase from last year. The double-digit price growth of past years appear to be waning and overzealous sellers who listed their homes at unrealistically high prices have been forced to reduce them. Bidding wars have declined and the typical well-priced house is now selling right at asking price.

Snohomish County

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While not nearly as dramatic as the case in King County, inventory in Snohomish County was up 40 percent. The area has just over two months of inventory with home prices moderating. The median price of a single-family home increased 8 percent over a year ago to $485,000. That’s down from the $492,000 median reached in August and $26,000 less than the peak of the market reached in spring.

View on https://windermereeastside.com/2018/10/08/local-market-update-october-2018/

Posted on October 12, 2018 at 10:33 am
Mallory Hanley | Category: Uncategorized

How to Acquire the Right Appraisal for Your Home

Appraisals are designed to protect buyers, sellers, and lending institutions. They provide a reliable, independent valuation of a tract of land and the structure on it, whether it’s a house or a skyscraper. Below, you will find information about the appraisal process, what goes into them, their benefits and some tips on how to help make an appraisal go smoothly and efficiently.

Appraised value vs. market value

The appraised value of a property is what the bank thinks it’s worth, and that amount is determined by a professional, third-party appraiser. The appraiser’s valuation is based on a combination of comparative market sales and inspection of the property.

Market value, on the other hand, is what a buyer is willing to pay for a home or what homes of comparable value are selling for. A home’s appraised value and its market value are typically not the same. In fact, sometimes the appraised value is very different. An appraisal provides you with an invaluable reality check.

If you are in the process of setting the price of your home, you can gain some peace-of-mind by consulting an independent appraiser. Show him comparative values for your neighborhood, relevant documents, and give him a tour of your home, just as you would show it to a prospective buyer.

What information goes into an appraisal?

Professional appraisers consult a range of information sources, including multiple listing services, county tax assessor records, county courthouse records, and appraisal data records, in addition to talking to local real estate professionals.

They also conduct an inspection. Typically an appraiser’s inspection focuses on:

The condition of the property and home, inside and out
The home’s layout and features
Home updates
Overall quality of construction
Estimate of the home’s square footage (the gross living area “GLA”; garages and unfinished basements are estimated separately)
Permanent fixtures (for example, in-ground pools, as opposed to above-ground pools)
After considering all such information, the appraiser arrives at three different dollar amounts – one for the value of the land, one for the value of the structure, and one for their combined value. In many cases, the land will be worth more than the structure.

One thing to bear in mind is that an appraisal is not a substitute for a home inspection. An appraiser does a cursory assessment of a house and property. For a more detailed inspection, consult with a home inspector and/or a specialist in the area of concern.

Who pays and how long does it take?

The buyer usually pays for the appraisal unless they have negotiated otherwise. Depending on the lender, the appraisal may be paid in advance or incorporated into the application fee; some are due on delivery and some are billed at closing. Typical costs range from $275-$600, but this can vary from region to region.

An inspection usually takes anywhere from 15 minutes to several hours, depending on the size and complexity of your property. In addition, the appraiser spends time pulling up county records for the values of the houses around you. A full report comes to your loan officer, a real estate agent or lender within about a week.

If you are the seller, you won’t get a copy of an appraisal ordered by a buyer. Under the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, however, the buyer has the right to get a copy of the appraisal, but they must request it. Typically the requested appraisal is provided at closing.

What if the appraisal is too low?

If your appraisal comes in too low it can be a problem. Usually, the seller’s and the buyer’s real estate agents respond by looking for recent and pending sales of comparable homes. Sometimes this can influence the appraisal. If the final appraisal is well below what you have agreed to pay, you can renegotiate the contract or cancel it.

Where do you find a qualified appraiser?

Your bank or lending institution will find and hire an appraiser; Federal regulatory guidelines do not allow borrowers to order and provide an appraisal to a bank for lending purposes. If you want an appraisal for your own personal reasons and not to secure a mortgage or buy a homeowner’s insurance policy, you can do the hiring yourself. You can contact your lending institution and they can recommend qualified appraisers and you can choose one yourself or you can call your local Windermere Real Estate agent and they can make a recommendation for you. Once you have the name of some appraisers you can verify their status on the Federal Appraisal Subcommittee website.

Tips for hassle-free appraisals:

What can you do to make the appraisal process as smooth and efficient as possible? Make sure you provide your appraiser with the information he or she needs to get the job done. Get out your important documents and start checking off a list that includes the following:
A brief explanation of why you’re getting an appraisal
The date you’d like your appraisal to be completed
A copy of your deed, survey, purchase agreement, or other papers that pertain to the property
If you have a mortgage, your lender, the year you got your mortgage, the amount, the type of mortgage (FHA, VA, etc.), your interest rate, and any additional financing you have
A copy of your current real estate tax bill, statement of special assessments, balance owing and on what (for example, sewer, water)
Tell your appraiser if your property is listed for sale and if so, your asking price and listing agency
Any personal property that is included
If you’re selling an income-producing property, a breakdown of income and expenses for the last year or two and a copy of leases
A copy of the original house plans and specifications
A list of recent improvements and their costs
Any other information you feel may be relevant
By doing your homework, compiling the information your appraiser needs, and providing it at the beginning of the process, you can minimize unnecessary phone calls and delays and get the information you need quickly and satisfactorily!

This post originally appeared on the Windermere blog.

Posted on October 3, 2018 at 6:21 pm
Mallory Hanley | Category: Uncategorized

5 Dangers of Overpricing a Home

It is still a great time to be a seller, but the local real estate market has begun to soften. With significant increases in inventory, buyers now have more choices and less sense of urgency. If you are thinking about selling your home, pricing it correctly the first time is critical. Here’s why:

  1. If you overprice your home, it won’t show up in some search results.

    Buyers search for homes using the parameters they desire. Price range is one of the most critical. If you set an unrealistic price of $850,000 for your home, all the buyers searching for homes up to $825,000 will fail to see your property in their search results.

  2. An overpriced home attracts the wrong buyer.

    An overpriced home will not compare favorably with the realistically-valued homes in a buyer’s price bracket. If your home is missing the amenities, square footage or other features of homes within the price range you’ve placed it in it won’t sell.

  3. Overpriced homes linger on the market and risk becoming “stale”.

    The interest in a home is always highest when the listing first hits the market. When an overpriced home goes unsold for a long period of time buyers often wonder what is wrong with the property. When a buyer moves on from a listing they rarely come back, even if you drop the price.

  4. You run the risk of getting less for your home than if you priced it correctly the first time.

    A Zillow study showed that homes that linger on the market tend to sell for significantly less than their listing price. When a home sits on the market for an extended period of time, buyers feel they have lots of room to negotiate.

  5. The longer your home remains on the market, the more expenses you incur.

    Every month your home goes unsold you put out money for mortgage payments, utilities and other home expenses that you will never recover.

Setting a realistic price for your home from the start is critical. If you’re thinking of selling, our highly trained experts at Windermere Real Estate can provide you with a comprehensive pricing analysis based on current market conditions.

https://windermereeastside.com/2018/09/24/5-dangers-of-overpricing-a-home/

Posted on September 27, 2018 at 11:02 am
Mallory Hanley | Category: Uncategorized

Local Market Update – September 2018

The number of homes for sale in August increased dramatically over the same time a year ago. This is the result of a moderate increase in new listings and a much slower pace of sales. Homes are staying on the market longer, giving buyers more choices and more time to make an informed decision.  While home prices are up compared to a year ago, the rate of increase was in the single digits rather than the double-digit surges of past months. It’s still a seller’s market, but sellers need to have realistic expectations about pricing their homes as the market softens.

Eastside

>>>Click image to view full report.

The median price of a single-family home on the Eastside was up nearly 10 percent from the same time last year to $935,000. Home prices have declined each month from the all-time high of $977,759 set in June. Inventory increased 73 percent over last August. With supply soaring and home prices moderating, sellers need to work with their broker to price their home to meet the current market conditions. A year ago 47 percent of the homes on the Eastside sold for over list price. This August that number was down to 29 percent.

King County

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King County experienced yet another flood of inventory with the number of homes for sale jumping 65 percent over the previous year. Despite the growth, the county has just 1.9 months of inventory and remains a seller-oriented market. The market has slowed but it remains fast-paced, with 62 percent of the properties here selling in fewer than 15 days.  While home prices were up 3 percent from a year ago, the median price of $669,000 represented the third straight month of declines from the record-high of $726,275 reached in May.

Seattle

>>>Click image to view full report.

After leading the nation in home price growth for nearly two years, Seattle is finally cooling off.  The median home price in August was $760,000, up just 4 percent from last year and down from the record $830,000 reached in May.  Inventory soared in August, but the city still has just two months of supply, far short of the four to six months that is considered balanced.  Bidding wars are becoming less common and price drops more common. Sellers must adjust their expectations to what appears to be a long waited moderating of the market.

Snohomish County

>>>Click image to view full report.

Mirroring the market slowdown in King County, Snohomish County also experienced a cooling off in August. The median price of a single-family home was $492,000, up 8 percent from a year ago but down from the record high of $511,000 two months prior. Inventory increased nearly 30 percent, but at just 1.6 months of supply the market remains very tight and sales are brisk. Sixty percent of homes here sold within 15 days.

 

Posted on September 21, 2018 at 1:04 pm
Mallory Hanley | Category: Uncategorized

What You Need to Know About the US Luxury Housing Market

Posted in Luxury by Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist, Windermere Real Estate 

Photo courtesy of West Bellevue Partners | MLS # 1324889

Luxury homes sales across the U.S. continue to perform strongly, but I’m noticing some headwinds starting to appear that are worthy of a closer look.

It’s often thought that luxury real estate runs totally independent of the overall market, and while this is true in some respects, there are definitely correlations between high-end housing and the rest of the market.

The first similarity is that the luxury market has suffered from some the same inventory constraints that are almost endemic across all price points in the U.S. But, similar to the overall market, we are starting to see a rise in inventory, which should be good news for real estate agents and luxury home buyers alike.

Impact of rising inventory 

This increase in the number of luxury homes for sale has started to have a tapering effect on price growth, which again, is similar to what we’re seeing in the rest of the market. But as real estate professionals, we know full well that all housing is local and some markets are performing far better than others.

For example, luxury markets in Maui, Northern California, Colorado, and Sarasota, Florida, are all experiencing substantial price growth, while there are noticeable slowdowns in many parts of New York and New Jersey. Even Queens and Jersey City, which have continued to benefit from high demand, have seen price growth stall recently, indicating that those markets could be losing some steam.

Why the slowdown? 

The slowing of luxury sales in certain areas around the country piqued my interest, so I decided to explore why this is happening. The first thing I noticed is that cities with high property taxes are fairly prevalent on the list of slowing markets; this includes cities like Boston, Austin, New York City, and Chicago. It is likely that the federal tax changes limiting the deductibility of property taxes are the culprit for such slowdowns in these areas.

Something else that has undoubtedly impacted luxury home sales in markets, such as New York City and Seattle, is the significant decline in foreign buyers from countries like China and Canada. According to the National Association of Realtors, the number of purchases by international buyers fell by 21 percent between 2017 and 2018, amounting to a drop of $32 billion – the largest decline on record.  Foreign buyers spent $121 billion on 266,754 properties, making up 8 percent of the buyers of existing (previously lived in) homes.

My research tells me that foreign home buyers are pulling back amid political uncertainty in the U.S. Ongoing concerns about a potential trade war, combined with rhetoric against foreigners, have done their part to dampen some of the enthusiasm to invest in U.S. housing. Also playing a role in this slowdown is the Chinese Central Government which has started placing tighter controls on the ability to spend money outside of mainland China. And finally, rising home prices and a strong U.S. dollar are likely two other key factors behind the tumbling interest in luxury real estate from overseas buyers.

So how do I see the luxury market performing in 2019?

Luxury real estate sales in markets like Boston, Clearwater, Austin, and Alexandria, Virginia will continue to slow down for the reasons stated earlier, but in other parts of the country, home buyers will provide the demand needed to keep the market plugging along at a healthy pace.

The changes affecting mortgage interest deductions and property taxes will also continue to impact the luxury market in certain areas, but this will, to a degree, be offset by other tax changes that favor high-income households and increase their disposable income. Something else that will help keep the luxury real estate market afloat in the coming year is jumbo mortgage interest rates which remain remarkably competitive compared to historic standards.

On a whole, high-end real estate sales have been strong over the past few years. While I am predicting somewhat of a slowdown next year given the headwinds discussed earlier, 2019 will be remembered as a year where balance started to return to the luxury housing market.

Mr. Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. 

This post originally appeared on the Windermere Blog.

Posted on September 7, 2018 at 1:35 pm
Mallory Hanley | Category: Uncategorized

Amazon confirms major office lease in Bellevue

That space is currently occupied by Expedia, but the travel booking company plans to decamp to a newly refurbished corporate campus on Elliott Bay in Seattle next year.The lease marks the second major Eastside expansion for Amazon, which was founded in Chief Executive Jeff Bezos’s Bellevue home in 1994 and moved to Seattle a year later.

In late 2016, in the midst of its frantic expansion in Seattle’s South Lake Union and Denny Triangle districts, the company established a beachhead across Lake Washington with the lease of the 16-story, 354,000-square-foot Centre 425 building at Northeast Fourth Street and 106th Avenue Northeast. About 2,000 people work there now, said Sam Kennedy, an Amazon spokesman. He said the new lease brings space for an additional 2,500 workers.

That’s poised to make Bellevue an important outpost in Amazon’s expanding constellation of North American research and development and sales offices, which collectively employ at least 17,500 people, with announced plans for some 10,000 more. The Puget Sound Business Journal spotted the regulatory filing confirming the new Bellevue lease earlier Tuesday.

Some in Seattle’s business and real estate community have speculated that Amazon, which is also seeking to place a second headquarters campus in one of 20 finalist regions, could turn to Bellevue as an outlet for office space that is growing increasingly expensive in its hometown. The lease also follows Amazon’s threat this spring to halt some development in Seattle as the city council debated a tax on large businesses to fund homelessness services. Bolstered in part by Amazon’s stand, Seattle’s business community rallied behind a repeal push that convinced the city to nix the measure before it could take effect.

Amazon’s footprint in Seattle includes about 10 million square feet of office space, with plans for an additional 4 million square feet by 2022. The company topped 45,000 employees in Seattle early this year. Kennedy, the Amazon spokesman, declined to disclose an updated figure Tuesday.

To read article on SeattleTimes.com, click here.

Posted on August 23, 2018 at 11:33 am
Mallory Hanley | Category: Uncategorized

Local Market Update – August 2018

For the first time in years, the real estate market is finally starting to deliver good news for buyers. The region experienced its third straight month of significant growth in inventory.  Homes are sitting on the market longer, prices are moderating, and multiple offers are becoming more rare. Despite the surge in homes for sale, it is still a seller’s market.  Inventory would need to triple to reach what is considered a balanced market.

Eastside

>>>Click image to view full report.

Inventory on the Eastside soared 47 percent over the same time last year. There was a slight increase in new listings, but the jump was mostly due to homes staying on the market longer. Price drops have become more common.  With buyers having more choices, sellers need to work with their broker to make sure they price their home correctly the first time. After setting a new high of $977,759 in June, the median price of a single-family home dropped to $947,500 in July.  While offering some hope that prices may have started to moderate, the median is still 10 percent higher than it was the same time a year ago.

King County

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King County saw the biggest increase in inventory in a decade, with the number of homes for sale jumping 48 percent over a year ago.  However, at 1.5 months of supply that’s still well below the 4-6 months of inventory that is considered balanced.  The median price of a single-family sold in July was $699,000. That represents an increase of 6 percent from a year ago, but is down 4 percent from the record high of $725,000 set in April. Perceptions that the market is cooling needs to be kept in perspective. Homes here took an average of 15 days to sell.

Seattle

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Seattle saw inventory shoot up 60 percent over a year ago, bringing the supply to its highest level in over three years.  Even with the sharp increase, much more inventory is needed to meet the demand for homes in the city and sellers may well decide to jump into the market. According to a Zillow study, more than 97 percent of homes in Seattle are worth more now than the peak level before the housing market crashed. Median home prices are 29 percent above the bubble peak level with the median price in July landing at $805,000; up 7 percent from last July and down from the record $830,000 reached in May.

Snohomish County

>>>Click image to view full report.

Snohomish County also had double-digit increases in inventory, though not nearly as great as King County. The number of homes for sale in July increased nearly 16 percent over the same time a year ago, but inventory continues to be very tight. The median price of a single-family home rose 9 percent year-to-year to $495,000. That figure is down from the record high of $511,500 set in June. A move towards a more moderated market is encouraging for buyers and an incentive for sellers to list their homes soon.

View on WindermereEastside.com

Posted on August 10, 2018 at 10:58 am
Mallory Hanley | Category: Uncategorized

Seattle housing market is under pressure as Chinese buying ‘dries up’

By,  CNBC

Seattle has been arguably one of the hottest housing markets in America, with home prices rising annually by double digits fueled by scorching demand. There is, however, one outside force that is starting to throw cold water on all that heat: new weakness from once-intense Chinese buyers.

The Pacific Northwest city has been one of the greatest beneficiaries of the recent wave of Chinese buyers of U.S. real estate. Both Chinese investors and families hoping to send their kids to American universities have fueled demand for housing in Seattle, which has long enjoyed a strong Asian culture.

In just the last two years, that demand increased dramatically. In 2016, nearby Canadian city Vancouver slapped a 25 percent tax on international homebuyers in an effort to cool its own overheated housing market. Chinese investors, who had been strong in that market, simply moved south of the border to escape the tax.

 “Chinese buyers are flooding into Seattle,” said Jonathan Woloshin of UBS in a 2016 interview.

But the Chinese yuan’s recent fall in value against the U.S. dollar has made housing more expensive for Chinese buyers. Now, Woloshin said, Seattle could see the opposite of the buying frenzy it had two years ago.

“I’m not telling you there is going to be a crash in prices, but do I think there is going to be a drop in the rate of increase? yes,” said Woloshin.

In the Seattle metropolitan area, home prices skyrocketed 45 percent between August 2016 and now, according to Woloshin. On a currency-adjusted basis, for Chinese buyers, they are up 54 percent.

“The Chinese have a very long time horizon, so if they are buying that home as a second or third home or they’re going to buy it for their child, that’s fair, but the huge run-up in prices, the depreciation in the yuan is going to have an impact,” he added.

Seattle housing is already cooling. The number of homes for sale in King County (where Seattle resides), shot up 47 percent in May compared with a year ago, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Pending home sales, which represent signed contracts, dropped nearly 9 percent.

Stephen Saunders is a managing broker with Coldwell Banker Seattle and works with Chinese investors in the Seattle market. “It’s drying up,” he said. “I just don’t see the same kind of volume. The downtown Seattle condo market has come to a grinding halt, and that’s where Chinese buyers were.”

Most of his clients are looking for properties in the $1 million to $3 million range, but he said the slowdown in buying is not all about the yuan.

“It’s not necessarily the decline in the currency, it is the increasing restrictions on getting money out. It’s just getting tighter and tighter,” he said, adding that the trade war between the U.S. and China is hitting the finances of some of his investor clients. As for Chinese families looking to buy homes for their children in the area, in just the past six to 10 months, “that’s dried up substantially,” he said.

Despite the increase in the supply of Seattle homes for sale, inventory is still incredibly low at barely two months’ worth, based on the level of sales. This is the same trend throughout the West, where overheated home prices have caused buyers to pull back.

“Although signs of an inventory turnaround are encouraging, whether they mean good news for buyers remains to be seen,” wrote Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in a release. “But high prices and fast-selling homes are causing some buyer hesitation which is reflected in fewer home sales.”

The Seattle housing market has benefited enormously from the region’s largest employer, Amazon. While there was concern earlier this year that a local “head tax” on employers would cause a hiring slowdown, that tax was quickly repealed after enormous pressure from Amazon.

The e-commerce giant, however, did report its first decline in its number of employees since 2009.

After strong hiring throughout the first half of 2017, job postings for open positions at Amazon headquarters dropped sharply last December, according to a report from The Seattle Times. Amazon is also planning to open a second headquarters, commonly called HQ2, although it has yet to announce the location. It currently employs more than 40,000 workers at its Seattle headquarters, according to quarterly filings.

Hiring shifts in Amazon’s home market would certainly affect local housing. The Seattle area, however, is also home to Microsoft and other tech companies.

“I think it will slow down,” said Skylar Olsen, director of economic research at Seattle-based Zillow. “Amazon is certainly a huge player, but they were a catalyst that started a lot of growth in tech. It wasn’t just Amazon that was booming local neighborhoods, it was other start-up players.”

On the other hand, Olsen said she actually thinks the devaluation of the yuan could spur homebuying in Seattle.

“If they’re investment buyers in the first place, then really you just move down in your price point, but you’re still really interested in the rate of return. If you expect the yuan to continue to drop, then you have every reason to buy an asset that’s not valued in yuan,” she added.

 

To read the full article from CNBC, click here.

Posted on August 10, 2018 at 10:45 am
Mallory Hanley | Category: Uncategorized

Housing crash a distant memory for Seattle homeowners, Zillow says

by Karina Mazhukhina / KOMONews.com

 

Based on a new study released by Zillow, now’s the best time to sell in Seattle, considering that more than 97 percent of homes are worth more now than before the housing market crash 10-plus years ago. (Photo: Pete Saloutos)

SEATTLE – Now may be the best time to sell in Seattle, considering more than 97 percent of homes are worth more now than the peak level before the housing market crashed in 2008, according to a new Zillow study released on Thursday.

The median home value is 29.2 percent above the bubble peak level, with the average home worth $492,700 – an 11.4 percent increase compared to a year ago.

Unfortunately, the same can be said about rent, with a 1.9 percent increase over the past year and a median cost of $2,176.

The rest of the housing market around the country is doing pretty well, too, with half of all U.S. homes more valuable now than before the 2008 recession. The median home value stands at $217,300 — that’s 8.3 percent higher than last year. Home values have risen by 8.4 percent since the height of the housing bubble.

Similarly, six of the 35 largest housing markets – including five cities in Texas (Austin, San Jose, San Antonio, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Houston), and Denver, Colorado – have more than 95 percent of homes worth more now than pre-recession peak. Portland, Oregon comes in close, with 94.8 percent of homes more valuable now.

But, there are many home buyers across major U.S. cities still struggling to recover from the recession. Las Vegas remains one of the worst cities, with only 0.8 percent of homes more valuable than before the crash. Orlando, Florida comes in second, Riverside, California third, and Baltimore, Maryland and Phoenix, Arizona topping the list for the least valuable homes since the recession.

“Despite widespread and consistent home value growth today, the scars of the recession still run deep for millions of longer-term U.S. homeowners, and it may take years of growth for their home to regain the value lost a decade ago,” Zillow Senior Economist Aaron Terrazas said. “And while stabilizing growth in rents is likely a relief for those renters saving to become homeowners, many of those would-be buyers in a number of the nation’s hottest markets will be contending with home prices that are as high as they’ve ever been.”

 

(Photo Credit: Pete Saloutos)

Click here to view full article on KomoNews.com.

Posted on August 3, 2018 at 11:09 am
Mallory Hanley | Category: Uncategorized

The Gardner Report – Second Quarter 2018

Economic Overview

The Washington State economy added 83,900 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing an annual growth rate of 2.5%. This is a slowdown from the last quarter, but employment growth remains well above the national rate of 1.6%. Employment gains continue to be robust in the private sector, which was up by 2.8%. The public sector (government) grew by a more modest 1.1%.

The strongest growth sectors were Retail Trade and Construction, which both rose by 4.8%. Significant growth was also seen in the Education & Health Services and Information sectors, which rose by 3.9% and 3.4%, respectively.

The State’s unemployment rate was 4.7%, down from 4.8% a year ago. Washington State will continue adding jobs for the balance of the year and I anticipate total job growth for 2018 will be around 80,000, representing a total employment growth rate of 2.4%.

Home Sales Activity

  • There were 23,209 home sales during the second quarter of 2018. This is a drop of 2.3% compared to the same period a year ago.

  • Clallam County saw sales rise the fastest relative to the same period a year ago, with an increase of 12.6%. Jefferson County also saw significant gains in sales at 11.1%.

  • The number of homes for sale last quarter was down by a nominal 0.3% when compared to the second quarter of 2017, but up by 66% when compared to the first quarter of this year. Much has been mentioned regarding the growth in listings, but it was not region-wide. King County saw a massive 31.7% increase in inventory, though all but three of the other counties covered in this report saw the number of listings drop compared to a year ago.

  • The takeaway from this data is that while some counties are seeing growth in listings — which will translate into sales down the road — the market is still out of balance.

Home Prices

  • Home prices continue to trend higher across Western Washington, but the pace of growth has started to slow. This should please would-be buyers. The spring market came late but inventory growth in the expensive King County market will give buyers more choices and likely lead to a slowing down of price growth as bidding wars continue to taper.

  • When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in Mason County, which was up 17.4%. Eleven other counties experienced double-digit price growth.

  • Mortgage rates, which had been rising significantly since the start of the year, have levelled off over the past month. I believe rising rates are likely the reason that inventory levels are rising, as would-be sellers believe that this could be the right time to cash out. That said, the slowing in rate increases has led buyers to believe that rates will not jump soon, which gives them a little more breathing room. I do not expect to see any possible slowdown in demand until mortgage rates breach the 5% mark.

Days on Market

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by seven days compared to the same quarter of 2017.

  • King County continues to be the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 13 days to sell. Every county in the region other than Clallam saw the length of time it took to sell a home drop when compared to the same period a year ago.

  • Across the entire region, it took an average of 41 days to sell a home in the second quarter of this year. This is down from 48 days in the second quarter of 2017 and down by 20 days when compared to the first quarter of 2018.

  • Although we did see some inventory increases when compared to the first quarter of the year, we are essentially at the same level of homes on the market as a year ago. The market has yet to reach equilibrium and I certainly do not expect to reach that point until sometime in 2019.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. For the second quarter of 2018, I have moved the needle very slightly towards buyers, but it remains firmly a seller’s market. This shift is a function of price growth tapering very slightly, as well as the expectation that we should see more homes come on the market as we move through the balance of the year.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

 

This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog.

Posted on July 27, 2018 at 11:51 am
Mallory Hanley | Category: Uncategorized

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